Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xddf4…2680 sports 78 markets active 8h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41,540 (+6%) realized +$42,712 · open −$1,172
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 30L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$9,301per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3,008est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$14,928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$827
7 days+$1,943
14 days+$1,313
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$21,736
sports 46% +$19,822
other 7% −$826
crypto 0% −$1,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -20.4% -28.0% 56% 56% +1.4%
≤30d 25 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 52% -5.8%
≤90d 35 -5.6% -14.6% 57% 54% -3.2%
all 72 -0.9% -10.3% 58% 50% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 50% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 39% -11.5%
15% -26.8% 26% -20.0%
20% -33.9% 18% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$10,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,930 vs −$4,139 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$14,928
Realized+$42,712
Unrealized−$1,172
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$3,008
Open positions6
Markets (closed)72 / 78
History coverage156d
Avg bet$9,301
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 47¢ 44¢ $10,000 $9,241 −$759 (-8%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $3,000 $2,974 −$26 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,000 $948 −$52 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1,000 $681 −$319 (-32%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $3,020 +$827 +27%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 16 $4,053 −$4,000 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $10,140 −$10,000 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $25,000 −$21,845 -87%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $3,000 −$2,960 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $1,000 +$360 +36%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10,158 +$10,930 +108%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101,636 +$27,630 +27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,026 +$1,000 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10,116 −$10,000 -99%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $2,048 +$8,315 +406%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $1,530 −$1,500 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $3,059 −$3,000 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $50,000 +$5,556 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $1,366 +$679 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,000 +$1,329 +27%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $23,273 −$19,273 -83%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $40,504 +$28,462 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $2,543 −$2,500 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $25,160 −$25,000 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $45,000 +$12,655 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $10,086 +$3,947 +39%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $3,025 −$3,000 -99%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $3,500 −$1,509 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $4,000 +$2,799 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $3,000 −$2,687 -90%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 04 $4,000 +$1,473 +37%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Apr 25 $3,000 +$1,730 +58%
Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 25 $1,000 −$989 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 11 $42,700 +$6,946 +16%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $3,000 +$1,332 +44%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $2,000 +$2,294 +115%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $10,000 +$318 +3%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 24 $28,944 +$8,266 +29%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $1,000 +$850 +85%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $40,000 +$2,587 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 11 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 11 $1,000 −$428 -43%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 11 $3,500 −$412 -12%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 11 $13,500 −$1,481 -11%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $33,400 +$8,980 +27%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $1,500 −$293 -20%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 05 $1,000 −$49 -5%
Jazz vs. 76ers Mar 05 $1,000 +$266 +27%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 05 $1,000 +$822 +82%
Golden Knights vs. Red Wings Mar 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $1,000 +$170 +17%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $11,000 +$5,151 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 47¢ $10,159 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $3,020 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 56¢ $1,013 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 56¢ $1,013 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 56¢ $1,013 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 56¢ $1,013 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 51¢ $5,073 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,028 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 55¢ $5,067 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $3,155 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $40 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $10,000 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $10,158 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $5,000 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,000 5d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,038 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $10,000 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $50,296 7d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 61¢ $10,116 8d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 33¢ $1,530 9d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu BUY Thijs Boogaard 19¢ $2,048 9d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 34¢ $3,059 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $3,000 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $50,319 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 67¢ $1,010 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 64¢ $356 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50,000 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,927.87 · official $14,927.87 (match) · 175 history records