Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0xddf3…b7b5

other · 4 markets active 1h ago

7.0score

+$46 +4%

TOTAL PnL · realized +$100 · open −$54

avoidriskycopy

✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Net worth$494

Realized+$100

Unrealized−$54

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$289

Trades / day3.3

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit25%

Chart Positions 2 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$100

7 days+$100

14 days+$100

30 days+$100

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5	Under	64¢	64¢	$200	$200	−$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	No	56¢	66¢	$100	$117	+$17 (+17%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5	Over	39¢	36¢	$120	$112	−$8 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	59¢	34¢	$112	$65	−$47 (-42%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$103	+$110	+107%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 12	$509	−$10	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 72% +$54

sports 28% −$8

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	56¢	$102	45m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5	BUY Over	39¢	$123	49m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5	BUY Under	64¢	$204	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$114	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$103	25h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	80¢	$499	25h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	79¢	$509	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+38.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+52.7%	+38.2%	50%	50%	+5.3%
≤30d	2	+52.7%	+38.2%	50%	50%	+5.3%
≤90d	2	+52.7%	+38.2%	50%	50%	+5.3%
all	2	+52.7%	+38.2%	50%	50%	+5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover3.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+38.2%	50%	+5.3%
10%	+25.0%	50%	-4.8%
15%	+12.9%	50%	-14.0%
20%	+1.8%	50%	-22.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.49 · official $494.51 (match) · 8 history records