Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xddf2…4867 crypto 932 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$350 (+9%) realized +$347 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%568W / 363L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day144.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 931 +5.9% -4.2% 61% 61% -3.0%
≤30d 931 +5.9% -4.2% 61% 61% -3.0%
≤90d 931 +5.9% -4.2% 61% 61% -3.0%
all 931 +5.9% -4.2% 61% 61% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 61% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 61% -12.3%
15% -21.7% 61% -20.8%
20% -29.4% 61% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$347
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses568 / 363
Open positions1
Markets (closed)931 / 932
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day144.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 931 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 59¢ 98¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 363 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.64 · official $6.20 (match) · 1500 history records