Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddf0…18d5 politics 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,083 (+0%) realized +$1,083 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%27W / 147L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,350per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$24
14 days−$33
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$125
other 37% −$39
sports 11% +$1,236
economics 4% −$11
world 2% −$10
culture 2% −$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 -4.6% -13.7% 6% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 128 -6.9% -15.8% 5% 3% -9.2%
all 174 +0.7% -8.8% 16% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 10% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 10% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 9% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,716) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$15 · ×7.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized+$1,083
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses27 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)174 / 176
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,350
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $314 $314 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $172 $172 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,388 −$5 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $641 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,436 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,028 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,468 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,100 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,101 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,296 −$5 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,815 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $56 +$61 +109%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $770 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,303 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $332 +$1 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,035 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $4,105 −$5 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,876 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,908 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $4,013 −$4 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $917 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $55 +$42 +76%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,241 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $934 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 19 $572 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $314 58m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $682 16h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $684 18h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $707 18h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $708 20h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $640 24h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $641 26h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $696 42h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $697 44h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $627 45h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $628 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $665 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $666 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $623 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $624 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $406 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $407 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $672 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $673 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $666 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $667 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $555 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $556 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $641 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $642 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $665 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $666 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $675 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $676 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $172 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.07 · official $486.07 (match) · 599 history records