Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddec…caea crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-7%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$188
other 43% +$154
world 8% −$102
sports 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +96.2% +77.5% 80% 80% +16.1%
≤30d 5 +96.2% +77.5% 80% 80% +16.1%
≤90d 5 +96.2% +77.5% 80% 80% +16.1%
all 29 -43.0% -48.4% 24% 24% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 24% -22.9%
10% -53.3% 17% -30.3%
15% -57.9% 17% -37.0%
20% -62.0% 10% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$16 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage108d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 +$56 +49%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$55 +18%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 +$36 +434%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 01 $55 −$29 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 01 $115 −$60 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$11 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 01 $35 −$11 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 01 $13 −$13 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 01 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$10 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 01 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 01 $80 +$33 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 01 $19 −$14 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 01 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 01 $86 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 01 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 01 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 53m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 58m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $32 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 54¢ $15 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6h
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $5 108d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $5 108d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $5 108d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 108d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $26 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $55 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $20 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $35 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $115 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.51 · official $99.51 (match) · 105 history records