Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdde9…4bd5 crypto 341 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,919 (-21%) realized −$4,920 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%64W / 275L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$106
14 days−$130
30 days−$964
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$4,979
other 4% +$10
world 3% −$19
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% −$20
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -43.6% -49.0% 23% 20% -4.1%
≤30d 110 -26.9% -33.8% 18% 15% -25.2%
≤90d 253 -23.8% -31.1% 19% 16% -29.2%
all 339 -27.9% -34.7% 19% 15% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 15% -30.0%
10% -41.0% 13% -36.7%
15% -46.7% 11% -42.8%
20% -51.9% 10% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$27 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$4,920
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses64 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)339 / 341
History coverage148d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 15 $18 −$3 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 15 $249 +$49 +20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $36 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$4 -37%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 13 $333 +$120 +36%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 12 $97 −$43 -45%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $41 −$20 -48%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 12 $262 +$157 +60%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 11? Jun 11 $82 −$4 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$56 +71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 11 $44 −$22 -51%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 11 $28 −$21 -73%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Jun 10 $70 −$52 -75%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $140 +$18 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 10 $437 −$9 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 9? Jun 10 $355 −$204 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$7 -64%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $13 +$18 +139%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $10 −$6 -65%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $35 +$23 +64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 06 $46 +$33 +71%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $7 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $30 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 5¢ $2 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 12¢ $18 36h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 11¢ $16 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 AND Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a BUY 18¢ $5 47h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 20¢ $20 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.00 · official $24.00 (match) · 2732 history records