Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdde7…b868 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,828 (+17%) realized +$1,828 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%24W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,895
world 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -36.9% -42.9% 32% 32% -36.7%
≤30d 27 -9.0% -17.7% 44% 44% -26.5%
≤90d 59 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 39% -25.5%
all 60 -18.4% -26.2% 40% 38% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 38% -25.7%
10% -33.3% 35% -32.8%
15% -39.7% 33% -39.3%
20% -45.6% 32% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$171 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,828
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses24 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage108d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,042 −$1,042 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $333 −$333 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,047 −$1,005 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $364 −$351 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $518 −$518 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $176 −$167 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1,004 +$722 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $247 −$247 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $346 +$522 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $151 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $284 +$238 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $341 +$534 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $149 +$78 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $188 +$156 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $261 +$57 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $256 +$46 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $75 +$67 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $261 +$390 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$62 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $18 +$14 +75%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $26 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 09 $242 −$229 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 09 $102 −$97 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 08 $200 +$252 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 08 $207 +$124 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 08 $138 −$132 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 08 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 05 $44 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 04 $140 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 04 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 04 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 04 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 03 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 02 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 29 $53 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 28 $53 −$52 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 28 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 26 $56 +$126 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 26 $217 −$102 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 26 $46 +$61 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 24 $408 −$404 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $85 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $492 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $465 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $502 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $545 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $333 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $364 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $518 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $176 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1,726 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1,004 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $219 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $27 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $68 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $53 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $190 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $156 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $151 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $102 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $409 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $113 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $284 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $82 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $875 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $341 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $228 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $149 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $344 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $188 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records