Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdde4…7bfd politics 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate89%279W / 33L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$43
14 days+$8
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$1
sports 17% −$16
other 16% +$35
world 12% +$12
politics 11% −$40
tech 3% −$129
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.3% +11.6% 75% 50% +15.3%
≤30d 71 +0.7% -8.9% 86% 14% -11.4%
≤90d 312 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 10% -10.1%
all 312 +1.0% -8.6% 89% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 10% -10.1%
10% -17.3% 7% -18.7%
15% -25.3% 5% -26.6%
20% -32.7% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$41 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses279 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)312 / 314
History coverage73d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 65¢ $64 $66 +$2 (+3%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 27 $71 +$53 +75%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $81 −$11 -14%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $188 −$13 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 18 $70 +$12 +17%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $90 −$84 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $831 +$2 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $52 +$23 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $71 +$18 +26%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 10 $60 −$31 -52%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 10 $126 −$6 -5%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Iceland vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $2,217 +$7 +0%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6,184 −$33 -0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Kuwait Jun 03 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Trump say "Goat" in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Mouse" in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hawk" in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Whale" in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 01 $274 −$28 -10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump say "Deer" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Rabbit" or "Bunny" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Golden Dome" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "America Last" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Christmas" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Panther" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obamacare" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Discombobulator" or "Discombobulated" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $65 52m
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 78¢ $37 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 79¢ $39 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 79¢ $48 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 45¢ $71 24h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 37¢ $70 30h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 43¢ $37 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 43¢ $44 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $26 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $58 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $8 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $109 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $188 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 8d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL No 15¢ $28 9d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $54 9d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 3¢ $6 9d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $34 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $834 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $831 10d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Under 73¢ $46 10d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Under 73¢ $1 10d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Under 73¢ $18 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.58 · official $75.60 (match) · 865 history records