Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DD 0xdde3…0d07 sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$374 (-2%) realized −$362 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%44W / 30L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$157
14 days−$1,036
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$398
other 10% +$722
crypto 6% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.2% -3.0% 75% 58% -6.5%
≤30d 74 -4.8% -13.8% 59% 50% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -4.8% -13.8% 59% 50% -9.6%
all 74 -4.8% -13.8% 59% 50% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 50% -9.6%
10% -22.1% 46% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 34% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 24% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$166 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses44 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage20d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 56¢ 50¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $501 +$23 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $784 +$507 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +83%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $251 +$40 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,611 +$16 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $222 +$84 +38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $413 +$148 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $557 −$557 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $344 −$344 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,273 −$1,225 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $155 +$141 +91%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $187 +$53 +28%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $289 +$75 +26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $250 +$39 +16%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $254 −$208 -82%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $201 −$201 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $152 −$152 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $303 +$114 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $406 +$412 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $474 +$661 +139%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$46 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,572 +$165 +10%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,009 −$408 -40%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,040 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 06 $102 −$88 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $206 −$206 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $146 −$75 -51%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$111 +109%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $305 −$157 -52%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $201 +$49 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $284 −$41 -14%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $1,168 +$276 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $50 −$15 -30%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $101 +$33 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $304 −$53 -18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$16 +32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1,004 +$677 +67%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 03 $878 +$128 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 56¢ $101 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $501 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $51 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $784 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $152 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $60 30h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $101 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,626 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,611 32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $251 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $413 34h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 72¢ $222 34h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $557 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $157 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $156 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 2¢ $48 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $296 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $155 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $155 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $86 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 48¢ $85 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $363 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $289 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $250 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $200 10d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 56¢ $101 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.39 · official $88.39 (match) · 194 history records