Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdde1…f1d7 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,724 (+4%) realized +$2,487 · open −$763
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$885per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,271
14 days+$1,271
30 days+$2,710
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$181
other 18% −$376
crypto 13% +$1,952
economics 4% +$44
politics 1% −$127
sports 0% −$69
tech 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +302.7% +264.3% 100% 100% +369.0%
≤30d 7 +69.6% +53.4% 71% 71% +22.3%
≤90d 26 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 38% -14.4%
all 50 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 40% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 40% -4.7%
10% -18.5% 24% -13.8%
15% -26.4% 14% -22.1%
20% -33.6% 12% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,181) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$368 vs −$327 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,670
Realized+$2,487
Unrealized−$763
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage138d
Avg bet$885
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $2,373 $1,522 −$850 (-36%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 23¢ 81¢ $35 $125 +$90 (+257%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-15%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $32 +$50 +156%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $272 +$1,221 +449%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5,888 +$1,947 +33%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $135 +$22 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $318 −$318 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 29 $634 +$205 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $417 −$417 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $789 −$456 -58%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $957 +$275 +29%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $64 −$22 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $2,178 −$1,813 -83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $245 +$46 +19%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $452 −$381 -84%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $324 +$146 +45%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $174 −$59 -34%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $1,370 −$954 -70%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $1,338 −$1,137 -85%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $2,467 +$510 +21%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $321 +$5 +2%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $5,453 +$291 +5%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 01 $264 −$125 -47%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1,181 +$69 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $2,727 +$355 +13%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 23 $71 −$12 -17%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 20 $388 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $1,651 +$165 +10%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? Mar 10 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 09 $8 +$5 +64%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $217 +$33 +15%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 06 $111 +$30 +27%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $162 −$143 -88%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $1,758 +$34 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $6,588 +$2,204 +34%
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2? Mar 03 $24 +$101 +426%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 01 $72 +$9 +13%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $308 −$308 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $2,350 +$1,861 +79%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $2,088 +$282 +14%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Feb 12 $8 −$1 -7%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Feb 09 $107 +$13 +13%
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? Feb 04 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Trump say "Biden" during 2pm signing? Feb 04 $27 $0 +1%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Feb 03 $28 +$49 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 47m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $250 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $169 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $98 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $165 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $124 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $49 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $207 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $63 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $45 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,670.15 · official $1,670.15 (match) · 1140 history records