Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdddc…bbea crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$119 (+14%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 43L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$236
14 days+$196
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$70
other 28% +$115
sports 18% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +71.2% +54.9% 54% 51% +43.4%
≤30d 91 +21.3% +9.8% 53% 49% +12.5%
≤90d 91 +21.3% +9.8% 53% 49% +12.5%
all 91 +21.3% +9.8% 53% 49% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 49% +12.5%
10% -0.7% 41% +1.8%
15% -10.3% 34% -8.1%
20% -19.1% 25% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 43
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage13d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $50 +$87 +173%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$18 +46%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 +$22 +46%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$18 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +3%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 +$8 +414%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $13 −$10 -76%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$9 +226%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$7 +177%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +234%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$18 +1732%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$8 -49%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 92¢ $137 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $50 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 19h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 19¢ $10 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $47 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $27 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $38 4d
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 0¢ $1 4d
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $38 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $2 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $4 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $2 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $2 4d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $8 4d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Norway 11¢ $3 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 35¢ $5 4d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $5 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.06 · official $14.06 (match) · 189 history records