Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddda…c99c world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 441d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 25% +$1
politics 18% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 0% -9.1%
all 33 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage441d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $13 +$1 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 06 $3 $0 -7%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $8 $0 -2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jun 22 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? Apr 03 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $42 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $14 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $13 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $36 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records