Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddd8…6c48 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2
other 27% −$6
politics 18% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 0% -8.8%
all 31 -2.1% -11.5% 26% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage278d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $37 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 22 $9 −$6 -67%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 36m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $15 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $25 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $39 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $36 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $4 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $40 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $6 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $30 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $7 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $34 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $34 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $40 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $37 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $34 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $34 26d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 265d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 265d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 99¢ $7 269d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 99¢ $16 269d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 269d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $23 269d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 269d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records