Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xddd8…e6f7
other · 127 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$45,472 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$42,252 · open −$3,025
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49,663
Realized−$42,252
Unrealized−$3,025
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses53 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)124 / 127
History coverage76d
Avg bet$4,428
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%
Chart Positions 3 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$865
14 days−$921
30 days−$1,192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 100¢ 94¢ $52,052 $49,023 −$3,029 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $636 $640 +$4 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 58¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+69%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $184 $0 −$184 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? No 26¢ 0¢ $786 $0 −$786 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? No 55¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? No 38¢ 0¢ $549 $0 −$549 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $2,013 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,283 −$786 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,373 −$105 -4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,344 +$16 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $3,000 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,134 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,358 −$51 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $55 −$52 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2,801 +$31 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $17,645 +$40 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,172 +$19 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,043 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $5,946 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $10,817 +$28 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $3,682 −$64 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,378 −$65 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $2,038 −$397 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $1,011 −$122 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $20,599 +$19 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $6,564 +$27 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $278 +$35 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,350 −$38 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,161 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failur May 18 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $1,919 +$20 +1%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 50 and 100 hours without failure May 18 $973 +$4 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $61 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $9,103 +$87 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $11,756 +$126 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $3,906 +$23 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $1,841 +$12 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $44,041 +$468 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 13 $23,130 +$115 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $2,470 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $9,648 +$10 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $11,467 +$23 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $3,549 +$33 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 80% −$46,149
politics 15% +$744
world 4% +$112
tech 1% +$12
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 26m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $0 37m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $3 37m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $4 49m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $342 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $536 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,856 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $32 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $158 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $191 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $124 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $566 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $57 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $106 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+88.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.9% -34.8% 57% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 43 +30.7% +18.3% 53% 5% -10.3%
≤90d 124 +108.0% +88.2% 43% 17% -20.9%
all 124 +108.0% +88.2% 43% 17% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +88.2% 17% -20.9%
10% +70.2% 16% -28.4%
15% ← realistic here +53.7% 15% -35.4%
20% +38.6% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,663.10 · official $49,662.70 (match) · 3500 history records