Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddd2…9fc3 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$126 (-11%) realized −$126 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$148
world 30% +$11
crypto 13% +$1
politics 13% −$2
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.6% -5.4% 83% 33% -7.0%
≤30d 7 +9.1% -1.3% 86% 43% -6.8%
≤90d 9 -7.4% -16.2% 67% 33% -24.1%
all 11 -24.2% -31.5% 55% 27% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 27% -24.4%
10% -38.0% 18% -31.6%
15% -44.0% 9% -38.2%
20% -49.5% 0% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage110d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 80¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $83 $84 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 74¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 18 $350 +$11 +3%
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $1 $0 +27%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 21 $3 +$1 +36%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $487 −$147 -30%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 81¢ $153 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $84 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $72 2h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? SELL No 91¢ $1 2h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $1 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $350 27d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 37¢ $340 37d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 37¢ $82 37d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 44¢ $102 37d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $1 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $1 37d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 37d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 37d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 37d
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 85¢ $1 37d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $3 37d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 37d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 61¢ $304 37d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY No 82¢ $1 109d
US strikes Iraq by February 28? BUY No 83¢ $1 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.29 · official $306.29 (match) · 27 history records