Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddd0…bd9f politics 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%56W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$6
other 26% −$4
crypto 11% −$1
world 6% −$11
sports 4% +$1
finance 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 157 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 1% -10.1%
all 208 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses56 / 152
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)208 / 213
History coverage100d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $88 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 12 $21 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 06 $31 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 06 $15 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7PM ET Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $79 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $9 54m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 7h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 7h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 8h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 9h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $5 9h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 11h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 11h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $5 12h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $8 13h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 13h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 13h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 15h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 15h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $9 16h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $8 16h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 17h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 17h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 18h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $5 19h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $9 19h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $5 20h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $5 23h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $6 24h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $6 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $41.98 (match) · 1233 history records