Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddce…7194 other 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+1%) realized +$188 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate41%91W / 133L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$45
world 16% +$73
politics 12% −$181
sports 8% −$105
tech 7% +$260
crypto 6% +$55
finance 3% −$5
economics 2% −$25
weather 1% +$17
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -6.1% -15.0% 14% 2% -10.6%
≤30d 42 -6.1% -15.0% 14% 2% -10.6%
≤90d 80 -2.7% -11.9% 26% 12% -8.2%
all 224 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 21% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 21% -8.7%
10% -19.2% 16% -17.4%
15% -27.0% 13% -25.4%
20% -34.2% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized+$188
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses91 / 133
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)224 / 236
History coverage570d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo Jun 22 $7 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo Jun 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF Jun 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF Jun 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F Jun 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the England vs Ghana FIF Jun 22 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wor Jun 22 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Jun 22 $7 −$1 -7%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Portugal vs Uzbe Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA Jun 22 $2 $0 -14%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World Jun 22 $1 $0 -42%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F Jun 22 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $244 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $39 +$15 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of June 22 Jun 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $147 Week of June 22 Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 -6%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Max Greyserman finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will Keith Mitchell finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Will Sahith Theegala finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $16 $0 -1%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Michael Kim finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $8 $0 -3%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $8 $0 -3%
Will Tom Kim finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Justin Thomas finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next PMQ? Jun 20 $24 −$10 -43%
Will Sung-Jae Im finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $19 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 -3%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ? Jun 20 $18 $0 -3%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Jun 20 $11 $0 -3%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 13? May 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 13? May 14 $99 +$43 +44%
Will Aspen Miller win Breakaway Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Cham May 13 $308 −$5 -2%
Will John Douch win Tie Down Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Champio May 12 $0 $0 -2%
Will Riley Webb win Tie Down Roping at The American Rodeo 2026 Champio May 12 $0 $0 -2%
Will Stetson Wright win Bull Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Champio May 12 $1 $0 -2%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 10? May 12 $150 −$25 -16%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Header" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Worl BUY Yes 98¢ $10 22m
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo SELL Yes 35¢ $7 22m
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY Yes 35¢ $7 24m
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo SELL No 92¢ $37 24m
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wo BUY No 92¢ $37 25m
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF SELL Yes 98¢ $49 28m
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World BUY No 92¢ $8 28m
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF SELL Yes 86¢ $17 29m
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF BUY Yes 86¢ $17 29m
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F SELL No 92¢ $37 29m
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F BUY No 92¢ $37 32m
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIF BUY Yes 98¢ $49 35m
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI BUY No 95¢ $9 37m
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the England vs Ghana BUY No 88¢ $88 37m
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA BUY No 92¢ $37 38m
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the England vs Ghana FIF SELL No 81¢ $10 46m
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the England vs Ghana FIF SELL No 77¢ $10 50m
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Portugal vs Uzbekist BUY No 85¢ $42 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the England vs Ghana FIF BUY No 86¢ $22 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wor SELL No 21¢ $4 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wor BUY No 27¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA SELL Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA BUY Yes 24¢ $7 1h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Portugal vs Uzbe SELL No 87¢ $17 1h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Portugal vs Uzbe BUY No 86¢ $17 1h
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI SELL Yes $2 1h
Will the announcers say "Verizon" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI BUY Yes $3 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI SELL No 21¢ $2 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.41 · official $345.92 · 992 history records