Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xddce…6c35 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$835 (-5%) realized −$835 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate78%38W / 11L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$404
other 25% −$618
politics 0% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.9% -24.8% 0% 0% -24.8%
≤30d 3 -22.5% -29.9% 33% 33% -31.7%
≤90d 6 -24.2% -31.4% 50% 33% -34.5%
all 49 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 49% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 49% -11.1%
10% -18.4% 16% -19.6%
15% -26.2% 8% -27.4%
20% -33.5% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$252 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$835
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses38 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage391d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $205 −$35 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $172 −$121 -70%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $143 +$28 +20%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $263 −$262 -100%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $235 +$28 +12%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $213 +$22 +10%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $842 −$836 -99%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 26 $747 +$95 +13%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $725 +$22 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 24 $979 +$108 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 24 $798 +$181 +23%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-23? Jan 23 $721 −$133 -18%
Santos vs. Yoo Oct 05 $578 −$578 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04? Oct 04 $519 +$58 +11%
Reds vs. Dodgers Oct 02 $497 +$23 +5%
Reds vs. Dodgers Oct 01 $482 +$15 +3%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $429 +$53 +12%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 23 $721 +$209 +29%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 17 $151 −$101 -66%
UFC 319: Silva vs. Barbosa Aug 16 $473 −$473 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? Aug 16 $468 +$5 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. Taira Aug 03 $697 +$77 +11%
Rangers vs. Mariners Aug 02 $600 +$97 +16%
Diamondbacks vs. Athletics Aug 02 $587 +$13 +2%
Will Victor Osimhen sign with a new club during the transfer window? Aug 02 $526 +$61 +12%
Twins vs. Dodgers Jul 22 $500 +$26 +5%
Cardinals vs. Rockies Jul 22 $470 +$30 +6%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Jul 21 $400 +$71 +18%
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier Jul 20 $395 +$5 +1%
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylov Jul 20 $217 +$178 +82%
UFC 318: Johnson vs. Zellhuber Jul 20 $211 +$6 +3%
UFC 318: Gautier vs. Valentin Jul 20 $175 +$36 +20%
FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. PSG – To Lift Trophy Jul 13 $163 +$12 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfim Jul 13 $134 +$30 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Murphy vs. Moura Jul 13 $114 +$20 +18%
Guardians vs. Astros Jul 11 $43 −$43 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Chelsea (To Advance) Jul 05 $100 +$14 +14%
Guardians vs. Cubs Jul 03 $93 +$51 +55%
Guardians vs. Cubs Jul 02 $87 +$6 +7%
Twins vs. Tigers Jun 30 $141 +$52 +37%
Dodgers vs. Royals Jun 29 $138 +$3 +2%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Inter Miami (To Advance) Jun 29 $125 +$14 +11%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jun 29 $97 +$27 +28%
Athletics vs. Yankees Jun 28 $164 −$4 -3%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 09 $85 +$5 +6%
Red Sox vs. Yankees Jun 09 $273 −$188 -69%
Red Sox vs. Yankees Jun 08 $246 +$27 +11%
Saragih vs. Sang Yoo Jun 07 $199 +$47 +23%
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes? Jun 03 $76 +$123 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 70¢ $170 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 83¢ $205 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 24¢ $51 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $172 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 83¢ $143 13d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Khamzat Chimaev $1 48d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $263 49d
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) SELL Ateba Gautier 100¢ $263 49d
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Ateba Gautier 89¢ $235 49d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Spurs 100¢ $235 49d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 90¢ $213 49d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-01-26? SELL Yes $6 152d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-01-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $842 152d
76ers vs. Hornets SELL Hornets 99¢ $842 152d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 88¢ $747 152d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage SELL T1 100¢ $747 153d
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage BUY T1 97¢ $725 153d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage SELL Gen.G 100¢ $1,087 154d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage BUY Gen.G 90¢ $979 154d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $979 154d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage BUY Hanwha Life Esports 81¢ $798 154d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-23? SELL Yes 62¢ $588 155d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $721 155d
Santos vs. Yoo BUY Yoo 61¢ $578 266d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04? SELL Yes 98¢ $578 266d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04? BUY Yes 88¢ $519 266d
Reds vs. Dodgers SELL Dodgers 99¢ $519 268d
Reds vs. Dodgers BUY Dodgers 95¢ $497 268d
Reds vs. Dodgers BUY Dodgers 97¢ $482 269d
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? BUY Yes 89¢ $429 270d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records