Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xddcd…725f crypto 217 markets active 3h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5,377 (+155%) realized +$5,378 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%78W / 138L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day153.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1,060
tech 3% −$92
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +18.0% +6.8% 38% 35% +11.4%
≤30d 216 +13.0% +2.2% 36% 31% +15.6%
≤90d 216 +13.0% +2.2% 36% 31% +15.6%
all 216 +13.0% +2.2% 36% 31% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.2% 31% +15.6%
10% ← realistic here -7.6% 26% +4.5%
15% -16.5% 21% -5.6%
20% -24.7% 18% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$6 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$5,378
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses78 / 138
Open positions1
Markets (closed)216 / 217
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day153.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 10¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $37 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$12 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $33 −$8 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -40%
XRP Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $33 −$14 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $116 +$67 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $67 +$45 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$12 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$42 +303%
Solana Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
XRP Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$7 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$6 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$15 +64%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
XRP Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $106 −$92 -86%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $157 +$134 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$8 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$3 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $23 −$17 -74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $4 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 1¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.82 · official $2.82 (match) · 3500 history records