Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xddcc…3a57 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$7
other 15% +$1
politics 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 21 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 10% -8.8%
≤90d 21 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 10% -8.8%
all 49 +1.3% -8.3% 37% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -8.6%
10% -17.1% 2% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage306d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 82¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $3 $0 +4%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $43 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $164 −$4 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $26 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $51 +$6 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $56 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $75 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $6 +$2 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $52 +$1 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $42 +$4 +8%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 25 $1 $0 +9%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Sep 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? Aug 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $53 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $39 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $7 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $29 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $26 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 36h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $42 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $8 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $22 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.80 · official $52.80 (match) · 243 history records