Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddcb…4a98 other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%75W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$21
world 12% −$1
crypto 10% −$3
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.6% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 20 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 82 -7.4% -16.2% 91% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 2% -10.6%
10% -24.2% 0% -19.2%
15% -31.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -38.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses75 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage469d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 09 $45 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 26 $42 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 10 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 8? Feb 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 Feb 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 Jan 30 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 19 Jan 30 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 27? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of December 202 Jan 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 8? Dec 27 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 27 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 08 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on Nov Dec 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Dec 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on November 22? Dec 04 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025 Dec 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025 Dec 04 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.80 on November 2? Nov 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? Nov 22 $25 $0 +0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by October 31? Nov 02 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 5d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 21d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 29d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 30d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $5 34d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 34d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 39d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 55d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 58d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 63d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 67d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 76d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 80d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 83d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? BUY No 99¢ $1 83d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 99¢ $1 83d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 83d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 99d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 107d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $40 124d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $36 129d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 129d
Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 129d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 138d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026 BUY No 97¢ $35 149d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.07 · official $47.07 (match) · 164 history records