Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddca…0969 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$10
other 30% −$12
tech 13% $0
world 6% −$11
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 14% -10.8%
≤30d 14 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 14% -10.8%
≤90d 14 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 14% -10.8%
all 14 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 14% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 14% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 0% -19.3%
15% -31.0% 0% -27.1%
20% -37.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $100 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $50 +$11 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 29 $5 $0 -2%
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $20 +$2 +11%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $201 −$11 -6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 29 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 $0 -0%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 29 $50 −$11 -22%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima Jun 29 $20 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Jun 29 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Paraguay? SELL No 99¢ $100 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 92¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 100¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 99¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL No 100¢ $22 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 81¢ $189 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 90¢ $20 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $201 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Paraguay 93¢ $104 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 80¢ $106 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 72¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $39 2h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima SELL No 96¢ $20 2h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 89¢ $46 2h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $97 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Paraguay 89¢ $100 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 75¢ $101 2h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 94¢ $49 3h
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 96¢ $20 3h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 92¢ $10 4h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $50 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.52 · official $99.52 (match) · 30 history records