Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

DD 0xddc7…6895 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$151 (+29%) realized +$152 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%12W / 13L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day76.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)+32.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+46.8%	+32.8%	48%	48%	+32.2%
≤30d	25	+46.8%	+32.8%	48%	48%	+32.2%
≤90d	25	+46.8%	+32.8%	48%	48%	+32.2%
all	25	+46.8%	+32.8%	48%	48%	+32.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover76.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+32.8%	48%	+32.2%
10% ← realistic here	+20.1%	44%	+19.5%
15%	+8.5%	40%	+8.0%
20%	-2.1%	24%	-2.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +64% → late +31% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$3 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.24 per $1 lost it wins $5.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$182

Realized+$152

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses12 / 13

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions19

Markets (closed)25 / 44

History coverage1d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day76.0

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 19 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	Over	68¢	68¢	$58	$58	−$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5	Over	73¢	72¢	$22	$22	−$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5	Under	89¢	90¢	$16	$16	+$0 (+0%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Over	68¢	68¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	57¢	$13	$13	+$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Over	78¢	78¢	$13	$13	+$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Over	72¢	72¢	$11	$11	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Panama (-1.5)	Ghana	90¢	90¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	DR Congo	50¢	46¢	$4	$3	−$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Over	11¢	12¢	$2	$3	+$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5	Over	7¢	6¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Over	54¢	55¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$10	−$1	-6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$29	+$20	+69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$10	+$1	+12%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$2	−$1	-39%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$8	−$4	-51%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$11	+$5	+42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$20	+$6	+30%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$20	−$2	-8%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$43	+$24	+56%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$4	+$16	+399%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$13	+$12	+90%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$5	−$2	-33%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$5	−$1	-12%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$5	−$4	-69%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-97%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria?	Jun 17	$20	+$9	+46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$5	-48%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$30	+$14	+48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$4	+$46	+1116%
France to score first vs. Senegal?	Jun 16	$27	+$11	+42%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$30	+$18	+60%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$15	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5	SELL Over	72¢	$6	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5	SELL Over	36¢	$10	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5	BUY Over	37¢	$10	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5	BUY Over	73¢	$28	1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	68¢	$59	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	13¢	$2	2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	78¢	$13	2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL DR Congo	47¢	$1	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	11¢	$3	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	7¢	$1	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	7¢	$1	4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	50¢	$5	4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	90¢	$5	4h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5	BUY Under	89¢	$16	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$3	4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$3	4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	72¢	$11	4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$4	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$1	7h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	SELL Yes	18¢	$1	8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$0	8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$5	8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	87¢	$4	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.42 · official $182.42 (match) · 85 history records