Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddc7…3ab0 world 34 markets active 3h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-3%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$5
other 16% −$26
politics 8% $0
tech 7% −$1
sports 6% +$3
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.1% -12.3% 30% 10% -10.7%
≤30d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 6% -10.2%
≤90d 16 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 6% -10.2%
all 34 -3.0% -12.3% 56% 3% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -11.9%
10% -20.7% 0% -20.3%
15% -28.3% 0% -28.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage480d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $76 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $18 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $44 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $17 −$7 -40%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $41 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $39 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 25–May 2? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Apr 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend? Apr 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 5? Mar 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State Mar 04 $34 $0 -1%
Mississippi Valley State vs. Prairie View A&M Mar 04 $31 +$3 +10%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Mar 01 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? Feb 23 $31 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $37 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $37 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $32 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $4 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $28 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $16 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $29 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records