Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddc4…23ab other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$96 (+3%) realized +$95 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,075
7 days−$103
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$611
other 35% −$483
crypto 2% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -35.5% -41.6% 30% 27% -12.4%
≤30d 33 -27.1% -34.1% 33% 27% -8.4%
≤90d 33 -27.1% -34.1% 33% 27% -8.4%
all 33 -27.1% -34.1% 33% 27% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 27% -8.4%
10% -40.4% 27% -17.2%
15% -46.1% 27% -25.2%
20% -51.4% 24% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$80 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage9d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $99 $102 +$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 25 $192 −$192 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $304 −$304 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 25 $244 −$244 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 +$102 +202%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $292 +$302 +103%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $269 +$23 +9%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $46 +$20 +43%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$88 -86%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $290 +$486 +168%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $41 −$38 -91%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $204 +$366 +179%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$17 -33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $124 +$87 +70%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $92 +$240 +260%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $102 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 9h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 33h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 95¢ $43 33h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 85¢ $37 33h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 85¢ $1 33h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 79¢ $71 34h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 28¢ $50 35h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 33¢ $51 36h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 95¢ $110 36h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 70¢ $3 36h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 70¢ $67 36h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 98¢ $132 36h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 35¢ $31 36h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 35¢ $2 36h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 35¢ $37 36h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 98¢ $162 37h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL Yes 22¢ $66 37h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 50¢ $22 37h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 50¢ $20 37h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 53¢ $269 38h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 38h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $292 39h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 44h
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY $10 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $14 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $30 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 43¢ $244 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.21 · official $131.21 (match) · 105 history records