Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:14:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xddc3…029c sports 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$11,897 (-4%) realized −$12,437 · open +$540
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate63%97W / 58L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,975per market
Trades / day122.9pace
Fees−$3,383est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12,492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,868
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.4% +12.5% 100% 100% +7.3%
≤30d 155 +21.3% +9.7% 63% 56% -10.0%
≤90d 155 +21.3% +9.7% 63% 56% -10.0%
all 155 +21.3% +9.7% 63% 56% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 56% -10.0%
10% -0.8% 48% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -10.4% 41% -26.5%
20% -19.2% 27% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,676) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,009 vs −$1,746 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$12,492
Realized−$12,437
Unrealized+$540
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses97 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$3,383
Open positions9
Markets (closed)155 / 164
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$1,975
Trades / day122.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 68¢ 84¢ $3,286 $4,080 +$794 (+24%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Walczaki 62¢ 64¢ $2,322 $2,420 +$99 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 1 Winner Millennium Esports 76¢ 80¢ $1,815 $1,923 +$108 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Group A Millennium Esports 82¢ 84¢ $1,162 $1,192 +$30 (+3%)
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) Millennium Esports 63¢ 83¢ $886 $1,161 +$275 (+31%)
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner Millennium Esports 76¢ 88¢ $855 $990 +$135 (+16%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 67¢ 72¢ $428 $465 +$37 (+9%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs K27 76¢ 76¢ $261 $259 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Sashi Esport 46¢ 0¢ $938 $1 −$937 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) Jun 19 $225 +$106 +47%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $262 +$50 +19%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $3,959 +$927 +23%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $9,849 +$1,704 +17%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3,870 +$588 +15%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs CSGOPOSITIVE - Map 1 Winner May 28 $2,187 +$304 +14%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Sta May 28 $936 +$170 +18%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Arch (+1.5) May 28 $1 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner May 28 $555 +$280 +50%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters - Map 1 Winner May 27 $1,388 +$692 +50%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Pl May 27 $224 +$184 +82%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner May 27 $694 −$694 -100%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs CSGOPOSITIVE - Map 2 Winner May 27 $2,201 +$400 +18%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $1,908 −$1,434 -75%
Map Handicap: BHE (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) May 27 $1,482 −$1,482 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin May 27 $818 −$814 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner May 27 $1,904 +$1,251 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $2,676 +$807 +30%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner May 27 $1,973 −$1,971 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner May 27 $1,065 −$1,063 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner May 27 $2,966 −$2,955 -100%
Map Handicap: NEMI (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) May 27 $688 −$688 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 27 $1,557 −$1,544 -99%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5) May 27 $1,622 +$1,968 +121%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham May 27 $6,114 +$1,341 +22%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group May 27 $93 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents - Map 2 Winner May 27 $357 +$11 +3%
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs 25 cents (+1.5) May 27 $890 +$56 +6%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs CSGOPOSITIVE (BO3) - Exort Series Main S May 27 $120 +$104 +86%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner May 27 $93 −$71 -76%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 25 cents - Map 1 Winner May 27 $1,032 +$77 +7%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner May 27 $670 +$629 +94%
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) May 26 $223 +$169 +76%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner May 26 $2,070 +$636 +31%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bebop (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio May 26 $1,414 +$1,230 +87%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - European Pro Leag May 26 $3,480 +$2,707 +78%
Counter-Strike: 163NEWS vs BET-M 33 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group May 26 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh May 26 $7,195 +$1,243 +17%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner May 26 $699 +$799 +114%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 2 Winner May 26 $2,378 −$2,376 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC - Map 1 Winner May 26 $682 +$402 +59%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winner May 26 $5,103 +$4,298 +84%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Gro May 25 $4,382 +$2,941 +67%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Bebop (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio May 25 $997 −$982 -98%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Tricksters (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Gro May 25 $11 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Tricksters - Map 2 Winner May 25 $9,509 +$1,031 +11%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner May 25 $1,450 +$739 +51%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner May 25 $3,293 −$3,281 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Brute - Map 2 Winner May 25 $867 +$551 +64%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta May 25 $8,307 +$6,579 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY K27 76¢ $152 1m
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) BUY Millennium Esports 67¢ $71 3m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 67¢ $2 3m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY K27 76¢ $110 3m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 63¢ $2 7m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $3 8m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $4 8m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 63¢ $3 8m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $5 8m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $6 8m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $3 8m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 67¢ $63 9m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 63¢ $150 10m
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) BUY Millennium Esports 67¢ $4 11m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $16 11m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $110 12m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $53 12m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $102 12m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $61 12m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $2 13m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 67¢ $156 13m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 67¢ $13 14m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $9 14m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $35 14m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $8 14m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 63¢ $25 14m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $34 14m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 63¢ $12 14m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 62¢ $7 14m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 63¢ $86 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,492.39 · official $12,535.35 (match) · 3500 history records