Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DD 0xddc2…2cc5 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$412 (+24%) realized +$412 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$503
sports 44% +$525
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +54.5% +39.8% 100% 100% +44.0%
≤30d 5 +54.5% +39.8% 100% 100% +44.0%
≤90d 5 +54.5% +39.8% 100% 100% +44.0%
all 5 +54.5% +39.8% 100% 100% +44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.8% 100% +44.0%
10% +26.4% 100% +30.2%
15% +14.2% 100% +17.6%
20% +3.0% 60% +6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$206 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized+$412
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $323 +$165 +51%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Jun 23 $588 +$460 +78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $398 +$189 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $249 +$148 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $184 +$66 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $323 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND SELL 99¢ $1,047 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 54¢ $588 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $587 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $398 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $249 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $184 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.85 · official $484.85 (match) · 9 history records