Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xddc2…afba world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$8
other 12% +$16
sports 4% +$7
politics 3% $0
tech 2% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.5% -12.7% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 0% -9.0%
all 32 +3.8% -6.1% 47% 16% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 16% -7.7%
10% -15.0% 12% -16.5%
15% -23.3% 3% -24.6%
20% -30.8% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.3 per $1 lost it wins $9.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage323d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $123 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $122 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $10 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $26 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $10 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $119 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $123 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $227 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $70 +$3 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $104 +$3 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $107 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 30 $41 +$5 +11%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $27 +$7 +25%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $19 +$8 +43%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $60 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $59 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $123 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $45 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $80 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $45 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 29h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $26 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $26 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.47 · official $122.47 (match) · 143 history records