Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddc1…7dc4 crypto 345 markets active 13h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%162W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$57
sports 30% +$20
other 24% +$9
culture 2% +$5
weather 1% −$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +23.1% +11.4% 58% 58% +17.0%
≤30d 13 +13.6% +2.8% 54% 54% +13.0%
≤90d 109 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 46% -11.2%
all 342 -11.5% -20.0% 47% 44% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 44% -12.0%
10% -27.6% 37% -20.4%
15% -34.6% 30% -28.1%
20% -41.0% 25% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses162 / 180
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)342 / 345
History coverage104d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 +$2 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$5 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -72%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5 +$6 +121%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $3 −$2 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score May 06 $3 $0 -7%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 04 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 +$3 +151%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $3 +$2 +67%
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score May 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $4 −$3 -99%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$1 -98%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $3 +$2 +67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $4 +$3 +73%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score May 03 $3 +$3 +93%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $3 +$3 +83%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $4 +$4 +90%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 +$2 +100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $4 −$3 -82%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $6 +$1 +18%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $2 +$2 +73%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $2 −$2 -87%
SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 13h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea BUY 25¢ $3 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $6 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 31d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 31d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 31d
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 31d
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 31d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 32d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 35d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 35d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 36d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 36d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $6.96 · 849 history records