Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xddc0…0feb other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$17
politics 32% −$16
sports 12% +$57
world 5% −$2
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 124 +2.6% -7.2% 11% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 6% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×9.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage130d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $389 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $190 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $214 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $184 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $215 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $254 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $181 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $257 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $228 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $327 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $280 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $354 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $307 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $265 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $315 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $336 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $265 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $328 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $314 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $310 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $333 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $249 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $305 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $323 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 9h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 9h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 20h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 23h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 23d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 24d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $189 24d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $189 24d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 26d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $184 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $184 27d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $215 27d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $215 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 29d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $181 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $181 29d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $255 29d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $255 30d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $179 30d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $179 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 31d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $208 31d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $208 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records