Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddbf…99c2 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$96 (-3%) realized −$94 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$171
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$14
other 7% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 46% -15.4%
≤30d 40 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 48% -13.3%
≤90d 40 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 48% -13.3%
all 40 -9.0% -17.7% 48% 48% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 48% -13.3%
10% -25.6% 48% -21.6%
15% -32.7% 48% -29.2%
20% -39.3% 35% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$58 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage10d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 58¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $27 +$20 +73%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $14 −$13 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $25 +$26 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $28 +$20 +70%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $76 −$41 -55%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 +$34 +265%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $69 −$42 -60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $182 +$118 +65%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $232 −$190 -82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $17 +$16 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $81 +$40 +50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $120 +$107 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $15 +$14 +89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $395 −$339 -86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $67 −$66 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $152 +$95 +63%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$48 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $253 +$111 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $158 −$30 -19%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $181 −$178 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $177 +$193 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $45 +$21 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5 Jun 09 $29 +$11 +37%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $61 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $47 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $16 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $11 10h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 10h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 93¢ $48 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $28 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 33¢ $34 19h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $29 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $76 30h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 32h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 32h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 32h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U BUY 38¢ $69 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 17¢ $27 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $2 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $6 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.50 · official $58.50 (match) · 90 history records