Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xddbc…5dce sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,510 (-17%) realized −$2,507 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,490
7 days−$3,891
14 days−$3,330
30 days−$3,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$3,068
other 8% −$408
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -39.2% -45.0% 31% 31% -42.0%
≤30d 29 +5.8% -4.2% 45% 45% -31.0%
≤90d 29 +5.8% -4.2% 45% 45% -31.0%
all 29 +5.8% -4.2% 45% 45% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 45% -31.0%
10% -13.4% 45% -37.6%
15% -21.8% 45% -43.6%
20% -29.4% 41% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$899) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +33% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$502 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$2,507
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage21d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia to win the second half? No 42¢ 42¢ $226 $223 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $899 −$899 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1,100 −$1,086 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Second half draw? Jun 17 $45 $0 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1,193 +$795 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $860 −$857 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1,301 +$904 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $959 +$817 +85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $300 −$296 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $541 +$380 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $320 −$314 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $134 +$159 +119%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 10 $149 +$145 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $93 −$92 -98%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $27 +$60 +226%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $345 +$205 +60%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 07 $115 −$113 -99%
Lyon: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Dali Blanch Jun 07 $93 −$3 -3%
Bratislava: Alex Molcan vs Petr Brunclik Jun 07 $87 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Quali Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $113 −$112 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $624 +$341 +55%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $39 +$118 +306%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $64 +$120 +188%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou Jun 01 $161 +$150 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $898 −$890 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 28 $862 +$358 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia to win the second half? BUY No 42¢ $230 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $899 4h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $1,100 6h
England vs. Croatia: Second half draw? SELL No 63¢ $45 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2 BUY 35¢ $10 8h
England vs. Croatia: Second half draw? BUY No 63¢ $6 10h
England vs. Croatia: Second half draw? BUY No 63¢ $39 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $170 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $4 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $2 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $809 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $208 28h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $72 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $39 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $16 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $8 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $16 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $7 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $96 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $2 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $164 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $326 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $5 32h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $8 33h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $16 33h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $79 33h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $2 33h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $33 33h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $79 33h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $18 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.95 · official $222.95 (match) · 156 history records