Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:55:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddbb…32af world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 342d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,316 (-8%) realized −$2,154 · open −$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$366
7 days+$3,371
14 days+$3,177
30 days+$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$325
economics 18% −$974
other 7% −$1,112
sports 3% +$1
politics 2% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.7% -0.7% 46% 46% +50.7%
≤30d 24 -15.9% -23.9% 33% 29% +1.8%
≤90d 31 -12.7% -21.0% 35% 32% +6.2%
all 60 -14.9% -23.0% 30% 28% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 28% -8.3%
10% -30.3% 27% -17.1%
15% -37.1% 25% -25.1%
20% -43.2% 20% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$247 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$2,154
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)60 / 64
History coverage342d
Avg bet$479
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 16¢ 9¢ $233 $133 −$100 (-43%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $27 $26 −$2 (-6%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 20 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $123 −$120 -98%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $140 −$126 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,630 +$1,912 +73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $500 +$584 +117%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $250 +$567 +227%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $700 +$719 +103%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $623 −$376 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1,305 −$705 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $1,397 −$1,065 -76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $1,784 −$538 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3,931 +$263 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $98 −$54 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $510 −$510 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $94 −$55 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2,961 −$1,219 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,490 −$693 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $188 −$188 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $630 −$165 -26%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 08 $2,507 +$523 +21%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $480 +$508 +106%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $663 +$1,508 +227%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 05 $430 −$430 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 04 $335 −$335 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? Feb 28 $185 +$315 +170%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 11 $360 −$140 -39%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Feb 02 $145 −$145 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meetin Jan 28 $534 −$534 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 23 $941 −$941 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 23 $202 −$51 -25%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 12 $112 +$30 +27%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Dec 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Dec 04 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Nov 18 $56 +$69 +123%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 11 $55 +$422 +770%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 11 $166 +$73 +44%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Nov 04 $152 −$16 -10%
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference? Nov 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025? Nov 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $161 −$51 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $28 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 27h
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 34¢ $87 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 33h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 33h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $601 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $2,125 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,084 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 97¢ $157 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,261 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $816 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $384 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 8d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $300 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $700 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $500 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $250 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $247 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $125 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 8¢ $120 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.78 · official $218.78 (match) · 718 history records