Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddb8…2151 other 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$713 (-8%) realized −$848 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%49W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days+$193
14 days+$213
30 days+$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$127
sports 25% −$221
crypto 15% −$325
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +103.2% +83.9% 70% 70% +27.0%
≤30d 69 +11.0% +0.4% 43% 43% -0.1%
≤90d 71 +7.9% -2.4% 42% 42% -3.4%
all 145 -16.0% -24.0% 34% 33% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 33% -18.3%
10% -31.2% 30% -26.1%
15% -37.9% 30% -33.2%
20% -44.0% 23% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$40 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized−$848
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses49 / 96
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)145 / 150
History coverage217d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $110 $233 +$123 (+112%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$28 -27%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $92 −$33 -36%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$95 +266%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $126 +$66 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $86 +$39 +45%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $5 +$18 +345%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $10 +$31 +307%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$70 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $175 −$170 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$97 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $213 +$149 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $504 +$190 +38%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $313 +$145 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$28 -90%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$69 +224%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$13 +44%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$89 +174%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $142 −$109 -76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$74 +360%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +92%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$21 -68%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$114 +223%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$152 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$61 +59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$18 -86%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $75 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $59 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 19¢ $102 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 8¢ $51 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 27¢ $36 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $126 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 6d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 100¢ $16 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 6d
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre SELL Gaston Bolaños 100¢ $42 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $29 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 9d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 9d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $123 9d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $30 9d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $362 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $213 9d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $694 9d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 9d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.27 · official $445.27 (match) · 277 history records