Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xddb2…745a
other · 72 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$607 +86%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$613 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$613
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses21 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)66 / 72
History coverage83d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 6 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$21
14 days−$40
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $780b and $800b on June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? No 18¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? No 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on April 30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 13 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $720b and $740b on June 30? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +3%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $24 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +72%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $21 −$17 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$5 -73%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $760b and $780b on June 30? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +146%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 03 $4 −$1 -18%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $14 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? May 25 $2 +$2 +107%
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? May 24 $13 −$3 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $2 +$2 +88%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $5 −$4 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? May 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $4 +$4 +96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? May 13 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $7 −$5 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $12 +$8 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $15 +$12 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 05 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 05 $15 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 05 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 05 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 05 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 05 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 05 $8 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 05 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30? May 01 $29 −$28 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $17 −$16 -95%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on April 30? Apr 30 $27 −$10 -39%
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? Apr 29 $21 −$11 -54%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on April 30? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $7 −$4 -66%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 18 $18 −$16 -91%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 17 $2 −$1 -72%
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary electio Apr 12 $23 −$15 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$11
politics 26% +$754
world 17% −$84
crypto 10% −$24
tech 3% −$17
sports 3% −$9
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 12m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 48m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 55m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 5h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 44¢ $2 9h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 43¢ $4 14h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 41¢ $2 39h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 21¢ $1 40h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 21¢ $1 40h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 22¢ $1 40h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 21¢ $4 40h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 22¢ $5 40h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $720b and $740b on June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $720b and $740b on June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $720b and $740b on June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL Yes 97¢ $14 5d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL Yes 97¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.8% -14.7% 67% 33% -34.9%
≤30d 26 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 31% -60.6%
≤90d 66 -5.9% -14.9% 32% 27% +77.0%
all 66 -5.9% -14.9% 32% 27% +77.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 27% +77.0%
10% -23.0% 26% +60.1%
15% -30.5% 24% +44.6%
20% -37.3% 21% +30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.50 · official $3.50 (match) · 388 history records