Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DD 0xddb2…404f other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+5%) realized +$193 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$225
sports 43% +$325
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -17.5%
≤30d 11 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 55% +0.0%
≤90d 11 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 55% +0.0%
all 11 +10.1% -0.4% 55% 55% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 55% +0.0%
10% -9.9% 55% -9.5%
15% -18.6% 55% -18.3%
20% -26.6% 55% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$138 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$672
Realized+$193
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage21d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $156 $264 +$108 (+69%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $173 $117 −$56 (-33%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $141 $115 −$27 (-19%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 47¢ 24¢ $204 $104 −$100 (-49%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $68 −$67 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $41 +$70 +172%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $85 +$55 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $123 +$77 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 18 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $223 −$223 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 18 $184 −$184 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $150 +$170 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $163 +$209 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $406 +$285 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 19¢ $37 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $74 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $68 5h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $85 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $41 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $123 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $61 30h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $150 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 2d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 3d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $121 3d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 3d
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $163 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $223 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $156 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $178 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $184 12d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $139 12d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 11¢ $128 19d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $406 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $672.09 · official $708.23 · 45 history records