Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddb2…bfdb politics 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 665d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$21
other 2% −$1
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 81 -7.8% -16.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 95% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

665d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage665d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $51 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $51 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Porto win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kyrie Irving lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Durant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.22°C and 1.24°C for 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Supreme Court vacancy in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Hugh Grant win the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Movie - Music Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Peyton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Lee Zeldin confirmed as Administrator of the EPA? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Four Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? Dec 09 $0 $0 -3%
Will Auburn win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win the AFC East? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Increase in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Nov 25 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Braga win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Chris Christie win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $49 14h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 25d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 35d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 35d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 40d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 40d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 46d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 46d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 66d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 66d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 71d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 71d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 71d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 86d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 87d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 92d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 93d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $51 97d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $52 97d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 100d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 100d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $52 103d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $52 104d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 107d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 107d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 109d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 109d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $52 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records