Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DD 0xddae…52c4 crypto 6 markets active 16h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$903 (-74%) realized −$375 · open −$528

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$203per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

— vs −$96 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$262

Realized−$375

Unrealized−$528

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$203

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$719	$191	−$528 (-73%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$71	$71	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	Jun 14	$134	−$133	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13?	Jun 14	$60	−$60	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	Jun 14	$98	−$98	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13?	Jun 14	$95	−$95	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$0	16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$121	16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	5¢	$7	16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$20	16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	4¢	$30	35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$12	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	4¢	$0	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$2	37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	38h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.50 · official $261.50 (match) · 55 history records