Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

DD 0xddaa…a0d8 sports 21 markets active 8h ago coverage 97d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,142 (+79%) realized +$2,142 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$129per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$16

14 days+$10

30 days−$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-17.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	17	-20.9%	-28.4%	41%	41%	-10.8%
≤90d	17	-20.9%	-28.4%	41%	41%	-10.8%
all	19	-8.4%	-17.1%	47%	47%	+62.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.1%	47%	+62.4%
10%	-25.0%	47%	+46.9%
15%	-32.3%	42%	+32.7%
20%	-38.9%	32%	+19.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +80% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late +5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$242 vs −$4 · ×63.05 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×56.74 per $1 lost it wins $56.74

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage

Net worth$29

Realized+$2,142

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage97d

Avg bet$129

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	Toronto Blue Jays	37¢	40¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+7%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	47¢	48¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Jun 12	$8	−$8	-99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)	Jun 09	$7	+$4	+61%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5	Jun 08	$8	+$2	+30%
Thunder vs. Spurs	Jun 08	$6	+$5	+89%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5	Jun 08	$7	+$3	+48%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)	Jun 08	$8	+$4	+48%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Jun 08	$7	+$5	+75%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Jun 08	$456	−$1	-0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5	Jun 07	$4	+$7	+190%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)	Jun 03	$4	−$4	-100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	Jun 01	$3	−$3	-99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	May 28	$3	−$3	-98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5	May 26	$3	−$3	-99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	May 23	$3	−$3	-100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	May 19	$5	−$5	-99%
Spread: Pistons (-15.5)	Mar 11	$115	+$111	+96%
Spread: Heat (-15.5)	Mar 11	$2,038	+$2,038	+100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	37¢	$1	8h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	37¢	$4	8h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUY Cincinnati Reds	47¢	$1	32h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUY Cincinnati Reds	47¢	$2	32h
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)	BUY Spurs	36¢	$3	2d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)	BUY Spurs	36¢	$2	2d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	BUY Golden Knights	70¢	$8	3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights	BUY Golden Knights	50¢	$4	5d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)	BUY Knicks	62¢	$7	7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	99¢	$455	8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5	BUY Over	34¢	$4	9d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)	BUY Knicks	67¢	$8	11d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)	BUY Spurs	38¢	$2	13d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5)	BUY Spurs	38¢	$2	13d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	BUY Under	56¢	$3	15d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	BUY Over	57¢	$6	17d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	BUY Over	57¢	$1	17d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	27¢	$3	18d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	52¢	$3	20d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	77¢	$3	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	77¢	$4	22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5	BUY Under	77¢	$1	22d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	45¢	$3	24d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5	BUY Under	67¢	$7	25d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	42¢	$0	27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	42¢	$2	27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	42¢	$3	27d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	53¢	$2	29d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	53¢	$4	29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$456	29d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.47 · official $29.47 (match) · 67 history records