Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdda8…b28a other 9 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-33%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$3
crypto 11% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.5% -47.0% 29% 14% -46.8%
≤30d 7 -41.5% -47.0% 29% 14% -46.8%
≤90d 7 -41.5% -47.0% 29% 14% -46.8%
all 7 -41.5% -47.0% 29% 14% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 14% -46.8%
10% -52.1% 14% -51.9%
15% -56.7% 14% -56.5%
20% -61.0% 0% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 6d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.26 · official $2.26 (match) · 13 history records