Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DD 0xdda5…bcf6 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$664 (-35%) realized −$664 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$809
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-69.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 20% -73.4%
≤30d 5 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 20% -73.4%
≤90d 5 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 20% -73.4%
all 5 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 20% -73.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.6% 20% -73.4%
10% -72.5% 0% -75.9%
15% -75.2% 0% -78.2%
20% -77.6% 0% -80.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$210 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$664
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $202 −$96 -48%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $201 +$31 +16%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,345 −$644 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 39m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 34¢ $106 40m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $232 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $201 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 12h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $650 13h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $649 13h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $695 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.76 · official $29.76 (match) · 10 history records