Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xdda5…c82a
world · 21 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$248 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$147 · open +$101
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4,415
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions15
Markets (closed)6 / 21
History coverage25d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 15 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$147
14 days+$147
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $915 $905 −$10 (-1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $500 $507 +$7 (+1%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 69¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $460 $482 +$22 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $318 $391 +$73 (+23%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 74¢ 78¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 47¢ 88¢ $100 $189 +$89 (+89%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ $200 $109 −$91 (-45%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Vinicius 82¢ 84¢ $67 $68 +$2 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Mbappe 70¢ 76¢ $47 $50 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $200 −$10 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $200 −$7 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $200 −$4 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $100 −$51 -51%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $101 +$76 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% −$144
sports 22% +$216
politics 18% +$169
tech 4% +$9
finance 4% −$4
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $190 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $193 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 67¢ $196 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 68¢ $200 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 74¢ $202 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $200 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $200 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. BUY Vinicius 82¢ $33 10h
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. BUY Vinicius 82¢ $33 16h
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe BUY Mbappe 70¢ $5 16h
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe BUY Mbappe 70¢ $42 18h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $68 22h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 23h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $28 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 24h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $102 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $460 24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $450 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $465 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $500 31h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 70¢ $504 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $254 31h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.6% +13.6% 33% 33% +5.2%
≤30d 6 +25.6% +13.6% 33% 33% +5.2%
≤90d 6 +25.6% +13.6% 33% 33% +5.2%
all 6 +25.6% +13.6% 33% 33% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.6% 33% +5.2%
10% +2.8% 33% -4.9%
15% -7.2% 33% -14.1%
20% -16.3% 33% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,415.06 · official $4,407.15 (match) · 38 history records