Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DD 0xdda3…16c5 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$2
world 32% +$59
crypto 7% $0
politics 7% $0
sports 6% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +60.8% +45.5% 75% 50% +44.6%
≤90d 4 +60.8% +45.5% 75% 50% +44.6%
all 24 +5.9% -4.2% 62% 8% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 8% +7.8%
10% -13.4% 8% -2.6%
15% -21.8% 4% -12.0%
20% -29.4% 4% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.07 per $1 lost it wins $16.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage464d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 47¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $27 +$58 +212%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $24 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $3 +$1 +29%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 08 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $4 $0 -5%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 20 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 14 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $42 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $25 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $43 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 92¢ $8 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 92¢ $36 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 25d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $8 356d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $2 360d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August SELL Yes $0 374d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August SELL Yes $1 374d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August SELL Yes $0 374d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August SELL Yes $0 374d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $8 375d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August BUY Yes $3 375d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 375d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 375d
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? SELL No 98¢ $11 375d
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? BUY No 97¢ $11 377d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 95¢ $2 390d
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? BUY No 99¢ $2 410d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.83 · official $125.83 (match) · 75 history records