Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xdda3…b20c sports 392 markets active 21h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,273 (-10%) realized −$20,273 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%174W / 218L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2,186est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$584
7 days−$801
14 days−$1,161
30 days−$3,717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$19,580
other 4% −$4,716
politics 0% −$224
crypto 0% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -40.7% -46.3% 31% 31% -41.3%
≤30d 69 -21.2% -28.7% 42% 41% -28.4%
≤90d 221 -19.1% -26.8% 45% 43% -18.4%
all 392 -14.6% -22.7% 44% 43% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 43% -19.8%
10% -30.1% 40% -27.5%
15% -36.9% 36% -34.5%
20% -43.0% 29% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$664) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$386 vs −$420 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20,273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses174 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,186
Open positions0
Markets (closed)392 / 392
History coverage386d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 392 Trades
no open positions (166 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $223 −$220 -99%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $166 +$60 +36%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $273 −$273 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $147 −$141 -96%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $111 +$33 +29%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $58 −$57 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $505 −$448 -89%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 12 $312 +$251 +80%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $31 +$38 +123%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $99 +$178 +180%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $160 −$157 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $274 −$160 -58%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigers Jun 02 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Berrettini Jun 01 $135 −$133 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $612 −$355 -58%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 01 $223 +$183 +82%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $102 +$136 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$19 +183%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $202 +$120 +59%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 May 31 $363 −$360 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 May 31 $199 +$374 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $6 −$6 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos May 27 $249 −$245 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $99 +$156 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $70 −$68 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants May 26 $132 −$101 -77%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 26 $398 −$266 -67%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $108 −$106 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz May 25 $115 −$6 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $111 −$109 -99%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $252 +$111 +44%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles May 24 $446 +$210 +47%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $132 +$109 +82%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 May 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 May 24 $283 +$153 +54%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 23 $196 +$189 +96%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 May 23 $100 −$98 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $104 +$92 +89%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $481 −$365 -76%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $227 +$149 +66%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $329 −$105 -32%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Lotte Giants May 23 $132 −$130 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY SSG Landers $3 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $223 21h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers SELL Doosan Bears 95¢ $150 22h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers SELL Doosan Bears 95¢ $35 22h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers SELL Doosan Bears 95¢ $35 22h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers SELL Doosan Bears 95¢ $6 22h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 76¢ $4 23h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 74¢ $60 23h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 66¢ $101 23h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 67¢ $198 25h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 67¢ $3 25h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 67¢ $67 25h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 56¢ $5 25h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 29¢ $8 45h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Hanwha Eagles $0 45h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Hanwha Eagles $0 45h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Hanwha Eagles $2 45h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Hanwha Eagles $2 45h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 50¢ $147 47h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $143 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 76¢ $111 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 17¢ $2 2d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 34¢ $58 2d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 37¢ $51 2d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $505 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 44¢ $51 2d
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) SELL Minaur 100¢ $563 2d
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Minaur 55¢ $13 2d
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Minaur 55¢ $44 2d
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Minaur 55¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1196 history records