Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DD 0xdda3…d55f sports 814 markets active 1h ago coverage 309d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 308d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15,456 (+13%) realized +$15,293 · open +$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%444W / 356L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,478
7 days+$15,751
14 days+$19,040
30 days+$20,854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$1,303
other 30% +$16,130
weather 11% −$627
finance 2% −$18
world 2% −$432
politics 2% −$53
culture 1% +$54
tech 0% −$343
economics 0% −$150
crypto 0% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +27.3% +15.1% 41% 34% +75.4%
≤30d 254 +57.7% +42.7% 47% 41% +69.8%
≤90d 488 +30.2% +17.8% 54% 40% +16.8%
all 800 +15.1% +4.2% 56% 39% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 39% +2.2%
10% -5.8% 31% -7.5%
15% -14.9% 25% -16.5%
20% -23.2% 23% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$72 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$2,510
Realized+$15,293
Unrealized+$163
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses444 / 356
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions6
Markets (closed)800 / 814
History coverage309d ⚠
Avg bet$150
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 88¢ 100¢ $1,200 $1,363 +$163 (+14%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 95¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,047 +$47 (+5%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 50¢ $83 $60 −$23 (-28%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $23 $32 +$9 (+41%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3,485 +$16,515 +474%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $700 +$1 +0%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6,583 −$1,370 -21%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $250 +$73 +29%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $175 −$175 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $181 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $49 +$71 +146%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $52 +$248 +474%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $210 −$210 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $230 −$230 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $466 +$52 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $190 +$310 +163%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $170 −$170 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,212 +$38 +3%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $4 +$78 +1900%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $792 +$8 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $599 +$394 +66%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1,480 +$20 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $8 +$16 +212%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$70 +233%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$96 +188%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$60 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 7¢ $1 34m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 7¢ $3 40m
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 7¢ $31 52m
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 95¢ $1,001 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 88¢ $201 1h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $701 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $3,485 19h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,409 19h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $323 19h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5,041 19h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $700 19h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 19h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,201 19h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $986 19h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $986 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $200 19h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $175 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $175 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 96¢ $157 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 23h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 19¢ $95 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,509.88 · official $2,509.88 (match) · 3406 history records