Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdda3…265d sports 11 markets active 26d ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,370 (-7%) realized −$6,370 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,849per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$242est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$13,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$13,249
sports 29% −$22,964
politics 8% +$3,279
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +52.0% +37.5% 67% 67% +10.1%
≤90d 11 +35.5% +22.6% 82% 64% -15.5%
all 11 +35.5% +22.6% 82% 64% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.6% 64% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here +10.9% 45% -23.6%
15% +0.2% 45% -31.0%
20% -9.7% 36% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,841 vs −$23,004 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$242
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage30d
Avg bet$8,849
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $60,198 +$13,249 +22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 01 $999 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $9 +$11 +134%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $13 +$12 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $280 +$110 +39%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 25 $1,690 +$3 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 25 $3,503 +$4 +0%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 25 $5,377 +$754 +14%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $2,009 +$2,415 +120%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie May 04 $23,245 −$23,004 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50,104 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22,956 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $686 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $147 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $42 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $37 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $42 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $581 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $154 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $74 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $270 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $2 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $7 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $584 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $29 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $38 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $4 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $6 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $44 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $157 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $0 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $244 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $592 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $594 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $427 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $965 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1,102 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $364 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records