Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdda1…7b5e sports 1033 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+1%) realized +$62 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%632W / 399L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$102
14 days+$57
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$86
other 5% +$129
crypto 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.9% -7.8% 53% 53% -25.4%
≤30d 270 +8.1% -2.2% 63% 56% -7.1%
≤90d 1031 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 50% -9.7%
all 1031 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 50% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 50% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 40% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 33% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 23% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses632 / 399
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1031 / 1033
History coverage58d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Maja Chwalinska 57¢ 88¢ $76 $117 +$41 (+54%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 50¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $100 +$62 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $1 +$3 +238%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $64 −$64 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $32 +$15 +48%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $64 +$18 +27%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $3 $0 +18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $25 −$7 -30%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $3 +$3 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $3 +$5 +152%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 +$47 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $149 +$88 +60%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $4 +$5 +116%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $1 +$1 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $1 +$1 +60%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $1 +$2 +165%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $11 +$16 +145%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +94%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $9 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $35 +$43 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $11 +$10 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$8 +221%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 57¢ $39 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 57¢ $39 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 61¢ $60 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 29¢ $1 27h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $50 39h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $25 39h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $64 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $44 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $32 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $32 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $64 4d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $1 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 58¢ $4 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 86¢ $15 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 84¢ $3 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ $5 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $5 6d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 6d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $3 6d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $74 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $74 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 45¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.28 · official $135.28 (match) · 2886 history records