Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdda1…ab02 crypto 493 markets active 4d ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,311 (-19%) realized −$2,311 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%125W / 368L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$249
14 days−$341
30 days−$1,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,976
other 1% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -50.7% -55.4% 21% 21% -70.0%
≤30d 180 -33.9% -40.2% 23% 23% -59.8%
≤90d 493 -18.8% -26.5% 25% 25% -34.5%
all 493 -18.8% -26.5% 25% 25% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 25% -34.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 25% -40.7%
15% -40.0% 24% -46.5%
20% -45.9% 23% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$21 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses125 / 368
Open positions0
Markets (closed)493 / 493
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 493 Trades
no open positions (173 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$36 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$42 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$27 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$27 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $34 −$27 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$43 +295%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $18 −$17 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 06 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 06 $4 +$20 +477%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 06 $19 −$18 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 06 $22 −$21 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 06 $12 −$12 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $13 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$23 +243%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $19 −$18 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$7 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 29 $18 −$17 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records