Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdda0…7d36 world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 59L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$13
other 23% $0
politics 13% $0
sports 12% −$1
economics 5% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.7% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 27 +2.8% -7.0% 26% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 2% -9.4%
all 93 -1.1% -10.5% 37% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 59
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage450d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 42¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $121 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $219 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $186 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $110 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $96 −$4 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $37 +$4 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $123 +$2 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $112 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $111 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $240 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $313 −$5 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $160 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $13 −$2 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $126 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $186 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $113 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $112 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $18 +$17 +96%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $169 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $64 $0 +1%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $103 +$3 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $96 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $174 −$4 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $9 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $21 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $77 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $57 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $108 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $102 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $105 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 59m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $75 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $74 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $87 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $108 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $109 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $118 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $48 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $89 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $111 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 454 history records