Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd9f…a586 sports 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%164W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$180
14 days+$214
30 days+$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$85
other 10% −$220
world 1% +$4
politics 1% −$1
weather 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +56.8% +41.8% 88% 88% +38.7%
≤30d 15 +43.9% +30.2% 80% 80% +27.8%
≤90d 320 +24.8% +12.9% 51% 46% -11.5%
all 320 +24.8% +12.9% 51% 46% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.9% 46% -11.5%
10% +2.1% 44% -20.0%
15% -7.8% 39% -27.7%
20% -16.8% 35% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses164 / 156
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)320 / 321
History coverage66d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 54¢ 24¢ $52 $22 −$29 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $49 +$42 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $46 +$39 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $47 +$39 +83%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $44 +$31 +71%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $36 +$29 +80%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $33 +$29 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $32 +$20 +62%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $31 +$29 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $33 +$25 +77%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $29 +$21 +71%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $27 +$24 +89%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $3 +$2 +74%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner May 18 $31 +$23 +77%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame May 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 18 $27 +$22 +83%
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx May 18 $27 +$22 +82%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Vexa - Map 2 Winner May 17 $30 −$30 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $27 +$21 +76%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $30 +$25 +84%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $29 +$19 +66%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner May 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur G May 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bordeaux: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Raphael Collignon May 17 $31 +$26 +86%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner May 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 17 $29 +$22 +74%
Will Eyüpspor win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$25 +84%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner May 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 17 $30 +$22 +74%
Will Dundee United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 17 $29 +$26 +91%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 17 $42 −$42 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Fiona Ferro vs Elina May 17 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 17 $28 +$23 +84%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Raul Brancaccio vs Clement Tabur May 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus May 17 $37 +$31 +83%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone May 17 $34 +$25 +74%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $36 +$29 +82%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Kilian Feldbausch vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Henri Squire May 17 $42 +$7 +18%
Zagreb: Elmer Moeller vs Zsombor Piros May 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 54¢ $52 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 53¢ $49 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 98¢ $5 22h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $46 23h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $50 3d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 54¢ $47 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 97¢ $76 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 56¢ $44 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 97¢ $66 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ $36 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 97¢ $62 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 96¢ $52 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $32 5d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 55¢ $35 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 98¢ $43 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $33 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 51¢ $31 11d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 99¢ $50 11d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 57¢ $29 11d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $10 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $27 12d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $30 13d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 97¢ $5 14d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 55¢ $3 15d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $31 30d
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Toronto Tempo 97¢ $49 30d
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Chicago Sky 96¢ $50 30d
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 39¢ $11 31d
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Chicago Sky 52¢ $27 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.31 · official $30.05 · 1224 history records